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Short-term market impact of 2024 US President elections and Trump-Zelensky meeting in defence industry

2026-01Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.fosCiências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
datacite.subject.fosCiências Sociais::Ciências Políticas
dc.contributor.authorMartins, António Miguel
dc.contributor.authorAlbuquerque, Bruno
dc.contributor.authorSardinha, Luís
dc.contributor.authorMoutinho, Nuno
dc.contributor.authorMartins, António
dc.contributor.authorAlbuquerque, Bruno
dc.contributor.authorSardinha, Luis
dc.date.accessioned2026-08-11T12:55:23Z
dc.date.available2026-08-11T12:55:23Z
dc.date.issued2026-01
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the short-term market effect of the US and European largest defence firms on the 2024 US presidential election (November 5, 2024) and the Trump-Zelensky meeting (February 28, 2025). By employing an event study methodology, our results show a positive and statistically significant stock price impact for both events. The results for the 2024 US presidential election are consistent with political business cycle theory. National elections in the arms- producing country drive a growth in sales revenues for defence firms, which tend to be higher when the Republican Party candidate wins the US elections. Our results also show the presence of heterogeneous abnormal returns between US and European defence firms around the Trump- Zelensky meeting, with European firms showing high and statistically significant positive returns while US firms show non-significant returns. This result is explained by the failure of security guarantees given by the US to the European countries and the awareness of the need for a rapid increase in military spending for self-defence purposes in Europe. This meeting reinforced the application of the principle of “Europe preference” in the acquisition of weapons. Finally, we conclude that stock market responses are reinforced or mitigated by firm-specific characteristics.eng
dc.identifier.citationMartins, A. M., Albuquerque, B., Sardinha, L., & Moutinho, N. (2025). Short-Term market impact of 2024 US President elections and Trump-Zelensky meeting in defence industry. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 102569.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.najef.2025.102569
dc.identifier.issn1062-9408
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/7925
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier BV
dc.relationUID/03182/2025
dc.relationUIDB/00685/2025
dc.relationUID/04007/2025
dc.relation.ispartofThe North American Journal of Economics and Finance
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAbnormal returns
dc.subjectDefence industry
dc.subjectElections
dc.subjectGeopolitical events
dc.subjectEvent study
dc.subject.
dc.subjectFaculdade de Ciências Sociais
dc.titleShort-term market impact of 2024 US President elections and Trump-Zelensky meeting in defence industryeng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.titleThe North American Journal of Economics and Finance
oaire.citation.volume82
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.affiliation.nameUniversidade da Madeira
person.familyNameMartins
person.familyNameAlbuquerque
person.familyNameSardinha
person.givenNameAntónio
person.givenNameBruno
person.givenNameLuis
person.identifier.ciencia-idA812-2D8E-1BC9
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7082-5460
person.identifier.orcid0009-0000-8448-6826
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6230-6027
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6603814844
relation.isAuthorOfPublication3adb669d-826c-43e7-8df7-8e28bad5eed1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication9416fc0e-d63f-49aa-9cba-f308a2b0878c
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationbd52240f-9a52-464f-82c4-b5d1d35bb133
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery3adb669d-826c-43e7-8df7-8e28bad5eed1

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