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Winner's curse in Premier League: evidence from the 2023/2024 summer transfer market
Publication . Vieira, Luís Manuel de Brito Barros; Martins, António Miguel Valente
The Winner’s Curse describes systematic overpayment in competitive bidding due to overestimation, asymmetric information, and financial pressure (Thaler, 1988). This study empirically assesses the Winner’s Curse in football by examining its presence in Premier League transfers, analyzing 84 transactions from the 2023/2024 summer transfer market window. Findings confirm that 63% of transfers involved overpayment, influenced by bidding wars (p = 0.031), rivalry (p = 0.022), buyers' Champions League qualification (p = 0.018), selling performance in the last five seasons (p = 0.021), and contract expiration (p = 0.040). While Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations help curb spending, strong governance has no significant effect. These results highlight the Winner’s Curse in football. Given this phenomenon's significant financial implications, clubs must adopt data-driven valuation models and stricter financial oversight to enhance market efficiency.
2026-03-09Dissertação de mestrado Acesso aberto Ver mais