Loading...
2 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
- Automated Aviation Wind Nowcasting: Exploring Feature-Based Machine Learning MethodsPublication . Alves, Décio; Mendonça, Fábio; Mostafa, Sheikh Shanawaz; Dias, Fernando MorgadoWind factors significantly influence air travel, and extreme conditions can cause operational disruptions. Machine learning approaches are emerging as a valuable tool for predicting wind pat terns. This research, using Madeira International Airport as a case study, delves into the effectiveness of feature creation and selection for wind nowcasting, focusing on predicting wind speed, direction, and gusts. Data from four sensors provided 56 features to forecast wind conditions over intervals of 2, 10, and 20 min. Five feature selection techniques were analyzed, namely mRMR, PCA, RFECV, GA, and XGBoost. The results indicate that combining new wind features with optimized feature selection can boost prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. A strong spatial correlation was observed among sensors at different locations, suggesting that the spatial-temporal context enhances predictions. The best accuracy for wind speed forecasts yielded a mean absolute percentage error of 0.35%, 0.53%, and 0.63% for the three time intervals, respectively. Wind gust errors were 0.24%, 0.33%, and 0.38%, respectively, while wind direction predictions remained challenging with errors above 100% for all intervals.
- The Potential of Machine Learning for Wind Speed and Direction Short-Term Forecasting: A Systematic ReviewPublication . Alves, Décio; Mendonça, Fábio; Mostafa, Sheikh Shanawaz; Dias, Fernando MorgadoWind forecasting, which is essential for numerous services and safety, has significantly improved in accuracy due to machine learning advancements. This study reviews 23 articles from 1983 to 2023 on machine learning for wind speed and direction nowcasting. The wind prediction ranged from 1 min to 1 week, with more articles at lower temporal resolutions. Most works employed neural networks, focusing recently on deep learning models. Among the reported performance metrics, the most prevalent were mean absolute error, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error. Considering these metrics, the mean performance of the examined works was 0.56 m/s, 1.10 m/s, and 6.72%, respectively. The results underscore the novel effectiveness of machine learning in predicting wind conditions using high-resolution time data and demonstrated that deep learning models surpassed traditional methods, improving the accuracy of wind speed and direction forecasts. Moreover, it was found that the inclusion of non-wind weather variables does not benefit the model’s overall performance. Further studies are recommended to predict both wind speed and direction using diverse spatial data points, and high-resolution data are recommended along with the usage of deep learning models.