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Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach

2016Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorAlmeida, António Manuel Martins de
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-21T09:21:51Z
dc.date.available2020-10-21T09:21:51Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractTourism is the leading economic sector in most islands and for that reason market trends are closely monitored due to the huge impacts of relatively minor changes in the demand patterns. An interesting line of research regarding the analysis of market trends concerns the examination of time series to get an historical overview of the data patterns. The modelling of demand patterns is obviously dependent on data availability, and the measurement of changes in demand patterns is quite often focused on a few decades. In this paper, we use long-term time-series data to analyse the evolution of the main markets in Madeira, by country of origin, in order to re-examine the Butler life cycle model, based on data available from 1946 onwards. This study is an opportunity to document the historical development of the industry in Madeira and to introduce the discussion about the rejuvenation of a mature destination. Tourism development in Madeira has experienced rapid growth until the late 90s, as one of the leading destinations in the European context. However, annual growth rates are not within acceptable ranges, which lead policy-makers and experts to recommend a thoughtfully assessment of the industry prospects.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationAlmeida, A. M. M. (2016). Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach. Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, 4(2), 145-156.pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/2931
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.publisherCinTurs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainavility and Well-Beingpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectMadeira Islandpt_PT
dc.subjectInbound tourismpt_PT
dc.subjectButler´ Life Cycle Modelpt_PT
dc.subjectTime series modelingpt_PT
dc.subject.pt_PT
dc.subjectFaculdade de Ciências Sociaispt_PT
dc.titleModelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approachpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceFaro (Portugal)pt_PT
oaire.citation.endPage156pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage145pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleJournal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamicspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume4(2)pt_PT
person.familyNameMartins de Almeida
person.givenNameAntónio Manuel
person.identifier.ciencia-id651F-3195-97B3
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3216-2018
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione951f0cc-880b-4354-96a5-35fbcd7821c3
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverye951f0cc-880b-4354-96a5-35fbcd7821c3

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