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Publication
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Tourism is the leading economic sector in most islands and for that reason market trends
are closely monitored due to the huge impacts of relatively minor changes in the demand
patterns. An interesting line of research regarding the analysis of market trends concerns the
examination of time series to get an historical overview of the data patterns. The modelling
of demand patterns is obviously dependent on data availability, and the measurement of
changes in demand patterns is quite often focused on a few decades. In this paper, we use
long-term time-series data to analyse the evolution of the main markets in Madeira, by
country of origin, in order to re-examine the Butler life cycle model, based on data available
from 1946 onwards. This study is an opportunity to document the historical development of
the industry in Madeira and to introduce the discussion about the rejuvenation of a mature
destination. Tourism development in Madeira has experienced rapid growth until the late
90s, as one of the leading destinations in the European context. However, annual growth
rates are not within acceptable ranges, which lead policy-makers and experts to recommend
a thoughtfully assessment of the industry prospects.
Description
Keywords
Madeira Island Inbound tourism Butler´ Life Cycle Model Time series modeling . Faculdade de Ciências Sociais
Citation
Almeida, A. M. M. (2016). Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach. Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, 4(2), 145-156.
Publisher
CinTurs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainavility and Well-Being