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Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

2018Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorNCD Risk Factor Collaboration
dc.contributor.authorOrnelas, Rui
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-18T12:08:16Z
dc.date.available2021-11-18T12:08:16Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractBackground: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hyper tensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20–29 years to 70–79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where rele vant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005–16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationZhou, Bin et al. Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants. International Journal Of Epidemiology. Oxford: Oxford Univ Press, v. 47, n. 3, p. 872-883i, 2018. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyy016pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/ije/dyy016pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/3831
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherInternational Epidemiological Associationpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectBlood pressurept_PT
dc.subjectHypertensionpt_PT
dc.subjectPopulation healthpt_PT
dc.subjectGlobal healthpt_PT
dc.subjectNon-communicable diseasept_PT
dc.subject.pt_PT
dc.subjectFaculdade de Ciências Sociaispt_PT
dc.titleContributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participantspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage883ipt_PT
oaire.citation.issue3pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage872pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleInternational Journal of Epidemiologypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume47pt_PT
person.familyNameOrnelas
person.givenNameRui
person.identifier.ciencia-idA71A-D19E-55F4
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-3737-7402
person.identifier.scopus-author-id24335790700
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication05370ce4-254d-4ca7-a937-9036407655c2
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery05370ce4-254d-4ca7-a937-9036407655c2

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