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Abstract(s)
Esta dissertação analisa a reação do mercado de capitais, no curto prazo, a incidentes que
envolvem aviões da Boeing em 2024, utilizando a metodologia de estudo de eventos e o modelo
de mercado para estimar os retornos anormais (ARs) e retornos anormais acumulados (CARs e
CAARs) em diferentes janelas de evento.
De acordo com a teoria da eficiência de mercado e a literatura sobre o risco de reputação, era
de esperar que os incidentes obtivessem impactos negativos nos preços das ações da Boeing. A
análise empírica confirma que, embora a intensidade varie entre eventos, determinados
incidentes provocaram retornos anormais negativos na Boeing, e, em alguns casos, esses efeitos
foram estatisticamente significativos, indicando uma reação adversa dos investidores, embora
não de forma consistente em todos os eventos. Paralelamente, alguns concorrentes,
especialmente a Embraer, registaram retornos anormais positivos em certos episódios,
evidenciando, aqui, efeitos competitivos possivelmente decorrentes de oportunidades
percebidas de ganho de quota de mercado. A Airbus apresentou variações mais modestas,
indicando uma reação limitada.
Relativamente às companhias aéreas num todo, a exposição à frota Boeing e o modelo de
negócio não influenciaram os retornos anormais.
Em síntese, os resultados mostram que os incidentes com os aviões da Boeing tiveram alguns
impactos negativos concretos e significativos sobre a própria empresa em eventos específicos,
enquanto alguns concorrentes diretos, como, por exemplo, a Embraer, beneficiaram em alguns
casos. Estes resultados mostram a importância da análise individualizada de cada incidente para
compreender a sensibilidade do mercado e a variação das reações no setor aeronáutico.
This dissertation analyzes the short-term reaction of the capital market to incidents involving Boeing aircraft in 2024, using event study methodology and the market model to estimate abnormal returns (ARs) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs and CAARs) in different event windows. According to market efficiency theory and the literature on reputation risk, it was expected that the incidents would have negative impacts on Boeing's stock prices. Empirical analysis confirms that, although the intensity varies between events, certain incidents caused negative abnormal returns at Boeing, and in some cases, these effects were statistically significant, indicating an adverse reaction from investors, although not consistently across all events. At the same time, some competitors, especially Embraer, recorded positive abnormal returns in certain episodes, highlighting competitive effects possibly resulting from perceived opportunities to gain market share. Airbus showed more modest variations, indicating a limited reaction. With regard to airlines as a whole, exposure to the Boeing fleet and the business model did not influence abnormal returns. In summary, the results show that incidents involving Boeing aircraft had some concrete and significant negative impacts on the company itself in specific events, while some direct competitors, such as Embraer, benefited in some cases. These results show the importance of individualized analysis of each incident to understand market sensitivity and varying reactions in the aviation sector
This dissertation analyzes the short-term reaction of the capital market to incidents involving Boeing aircraft in 2024, using event study methodology and the market model to estimate abnormal returns (ARs) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs and CAARs) in different event windows. According to market efficiency theory and the literature on reputation risk, it was expected that the incidents would have negative impacts on Boeing's stock prices. Empirical analysis confirms that, although the intensity varies between events, certain incidents caused negative abnormal returns at Boeing, and in some cases, these effects were statistically significant, indicating an adverse reaction from investors, although not consistently across all events. At the same time, some competitors, especially Embraer, recorded positive abnormal returns in certain episodes, highlighting competitive effects possibly resulting from perceived opportunities to gain market share. Airbus showed more modest variations, indicating a limited reaction. With regard to airlines as a whole, exposure to the Boeing fleet and the business model did not influence abnormal returns. In summary, the results show that incidents involving Boeing aircraft had some concrete and significant negative impacts on the company itself in specific events, while some direct competitors, such as Embraer, benefited in some cases. These results show the importance of individualized analysis of each incident to understand market sensitivity and varying reactions in the aviation sector
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Keywords
Indústria aérea Boeing Incidentes aéreos Retornos anormais Reação do mercado Estudo de eventos Aviation industry Aviation incidents Abnormal returns Market reaction Event study Gestão . Faculdade de Ciências Sociais