Browsing by Author "Albuquerque, Bruno"
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- 2024 U.S. presidential elections: an event study for U.S. and non-U.S. fossil fuel and renewable listed firmsPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, LuisThis study examines the short-term market effect of Donald Trump’ victory in the 2024 US presidential election on largest US and non-US listed worldwide fuel fossil and renewable firms. Employing an event study meth odology, we observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction for worldwide renewable listed firms. An analysis by economic zones reveals the existence of negative abnormal returns for renewable energy firms in the US, Europe, India and in the rest of the world. In the case of China, abnormal returns are not sta tistically significant. With respect to worldwide fossil fuel listed firms, abnormal returns are generally not sta tistically significant. However, regarding US firms, we observe positive and statistically significant abnormal returns. These abnormal returns are explained by the change of US energy policy (pro-oil and gas policy) and the expected cut in subsidies and lower profitability of investments in green energies. Finally, our study provide insight into which firm-specific characteristics emerge as value drives around US presidential elections. The results show that despite the change in environmental policy in the US, favourable to fossil energy, the stock markets reward firms with high environmental ratings. Overall, our results indicate that 2024 US presidential election, for implying a change in US energy policy, has relevant policy implications for energy listed firms.
- Presidential elections and secretary appointment: an event study for us biotechnology and drugsPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, LuisThe aim of this study is to analyse the effect of the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health secretary to the largest US listed biotechnology and drug firms. Using an event study methodology, we find that President Donald Trump’s election had no sig nificant impact on the industry. On the contrary, the results show statistically significant negative stock price reactions around the US health secretary appointment. The negative industry reaction to the US health secretary appointment is largely explained by his scepticism about vaccination and criticism about the high prices of drug prescriptions and margins in the industry. These re sults highlight the importance of top government position appointments, especially when such appointments eliminate much of the uncertainty regarding future government action in the in dustry and political uncertainty hypothesis. Finally, cross-section analysis reveals that the firms most penalized by the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health sec retary are those with the highest investments in R&D and capital expenditures. This could mean lower future investments in new vaccines or drugs, seriously harming society.