2024 U.S. presidential elections: an event study for U.S. and non-U.S. fossil fuel and renewable listed firms

Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Sardinha, Luis

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/7505

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Authors

Martins, António Miguel

Abstract(s)

This study examines the short-term market effect of Donald Trump’ victory in the 2024 US presidential election on largest US and non-US listed worldwide fuel fossil and renewable firms. Employing an event study meth odology, we observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction for worldwide renewable listed firms. An analysis by economic zones reveals the existence of negative abnormal returns for renewable energy firms in the US, Europe, India and in the rest of the world. In the case of China, abnormal returns are not sta tistically significant. With respect to worldwide fossil fuel listed firms, abnormal returns are generally not sta tistically significant. However, regarding US firms, we observe positive and statistically significant abnormal returns. These abnormal returns are explained by the change of US energy policy (pro-oil and gas policy) and the expected cut in subsidies and lower profitability of investments in green energies. Finally, our study provide insight into which firm-specific characteristics emerge as value drives around US presidential elections. The results show that despite the change in environmental policy in the US, favourable to fossil energy, the stock markets reward firms with high environmental ratings. Overall, our results indicate that 2024 US presidential election, for implying a change in US energy policy, has relevant policy implications for energy listed firms.