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- Tourism activity affects house price dynamics? Evidence for countries dependent on tourismPublication . Cró, Susana; Martins, António Miguel; Martins, AntónioThis study analyses the impact of tourism in house prices in eight tourism dependent countries in terms of exports for the period from 2000 to 2018. We employ a Vector-Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical estimation given that house prices, tourism activity and other determinants are cointegrated. The results indicate that tourism has a significant positive impact on house prices both in the short-run and in the long-run. The Granger causality tests show that tourism activity Granger-causes house prices in the eight countries analysed. These results have important practical and political implications. There is a delicate environment and social equilibrium in tourist destinations that it is necessary to ensure. If it is true that tourism has positive effects on the economy through job creation and economic growth it is also important to internalize the negative externalities caused by tourism, through the adoption of appropriate economic instruments and policies.
- The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse and their impact on other U.S. BanksPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Martins, AntónioABSTRACT This paper examines how US banking industry responded to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. The analysis of abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse reveals a negative and statistically significant impact on the largest listed US banks. Banks’ market value loss is explained by information asymmetries and uncertainty returns, systemic contagion, and panic. These reactions are reinforced or mitigated by bank-specific characteristics such as size, liquidity, profitability, risk aversion, operational efficiency, institutional ownership, internationalization, dependence on uninsured deposits and ratio of off balance sheet items.
- Presidential elections and secretary appointment: an event study for us biotechnology and drugsPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, LuisThe aim of this study is to analyse the effect of the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health secretary to the largest US listed biotechnology and drug firms. Using an event study methodology, we find that President Donald Trump’s election had no sig nificant impact on the industry. On the contrary, the results show statistically significant negative stock price reactions around the US health secretary appointment. The negative industry reaction to the US health secretary appointment is largely explained by his scepticism about vaccination and criticism about the high prices of drug prescriptions and margins in the industry. These re sults highlight the importance of top government position appointments, especially when such appointments eliminate much of the uncertainty regarding future government action in the in dustry and political uncertainty hypothesis. Finally, cross-section analysis reveals that the firms most penalized by the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health sec retary are those with the highest investments in R&D and capital expenditures. This could mean lower future investments in new vaccines or drugs, seriously harming society.
- 2024 U.S. presidential elections: an event study for U.S. and non-U.S. fossil fuel and renewable listed firmsPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, LuisThis study examines the short-term market effect of Donald Trump’ victory in the 2024 US presidential election on largest US and non-US listed worldwide fuel fossil and renewable firms. Employing an event study meth odology, we observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction for worldwide renewable listed firms. An analysis by economic zones reveals the existence of negative abnormal returns for renewable energy firms in the US, Europe, India and in the rest of the world. In the case of China, abnormal returns are not sta tistically significant. With respect to worldwide fossil fuel listed firms, abnormal returns are generally not sta tistically significant. However, regarding US firms, we observe positive and statistically significant abnormal returns. These abnormal returns are explained by the change of US energy policy (pro-oil and gas policy) and the expected cut in subsidies and lower profitability of investments in green energies. Finally, our study provide insight into which firm-specific characteristics emerge as value drives around US presidential elections. The results show that despite the change in environmental policy in the US, favourable to fossil energy, the stock markets reward firms with high environmental ratings. Overall, our results indicate that 2024 US presidential election, for implying a change in US energy policy, has relevant policy implications for energy listed firms.