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- Tourism activity affects house price dynamics? Evidence for countries dependent on tourismPublication . Cró, Susana; Martins, António Miguel; Martins, AntónioThis study analyses the impact of tourism in house prices in eight tourism dependent countries in terms of exports for the period from 2000 to 2018. We employ a Vector-Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical estimation given that house prices, tourism activity and other determinants are cointegrated. The results indicate that tourism has a significant positive impact on house prices both in the short-run and in the long-run. The Granger causality tests show that tourism activity Granger-causes house prices in the eight countries analysed. These results have important practical and political implications. There is a delicate environment and social equilibrium in tourist destinations that it is necessary to ensure. If it is true that tourism has positive effects on the economy through job creation and economic growth it is also important to internalize the negative externalities caused by tourism, through the adoption of appropriate economic instruments and policies.
- The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse and their impact on other U.S. BanksPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Martins, AntónioABSTRACT This paper examines how US banking industry responded to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. The analysis of abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse reveals a negative and statistically significant impact on the largest listed US banks. Banks’ market value loss is explained by information asymmetries and uncertainty returns, systemic contagion, and panic. These reactions are reinforced or mitigated by bank-specific characteristics such as size, liquidity, profitability, risk aversion, operational efficiency, institutional ownership, internationalization, dependence on uninsured deposits and ratio of off balance sheet items.
- Presidential elections and secretary appointment: an event study for us biotechnology and drugsPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, LuisThe aim of this study is to analyse the effect of the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health secretary to the largest US listed biotechnology and drug firms. Using an event study methodology, we find that President Donald Trump’s election had no sig nificant impact on the industry. On the contrary, the results show statistically significant negative stock price reactions around the US health secretary appointment. The negative industry reaction to the US health secretary appointment is largely explained by his scepticism about vaccination and criticism about the high prices of drug prescriptions and margins in the industry. These re sults highlight the importance of top government position appointments, especially when such appointments eliminate much of the uncertainty regarding future government action in the in dustry and political uncertainty hypothesis. Finally, cross-section analysis reveals that the firms most penalized by the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health sec retary are those with the highest investments in R&D and capital expenditures. This could mean lower future investments in new vaccines or drugs, seriously harming society.
- 2024 U.S. presidential elections: an event study for U.S. and non-U.S. fossil fuel and renewable listed firmsPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, LuisThis study examines the short-term market effect of Donald Trump’ victory in the 2024 US presidential election on largest US and non-US listed worldwide fuel fossil and renewable firms. Employing an event study meth odology, we observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction for worldwide renewable listed firms. An analysis by economic zones reveals the existence of negative abnormal returns for renewable energy firms in the US, Europe, India and in the rest of the world. In the case of China, abnormal returns are not sta tistically significant. With respect to worldwide fossil fuel listed firms, abnormal returns are generally not sta tistically significant. However, regarding US firms, we observe positive and statistically significant abnormal returns. These abnormal returns are explained by the change of US energy policy (pro-oil and gas policy) and the expected cut in subsidies and lower profitability of investments in green energies. Finally, our study provide insight into which firm-specific characteristics emerge as value drives around US presidential elections. The results show that despite the change in environmental policy in the US, favourable to fossil energy, the stock markets reward firms with high environmental ratings. Overall, our results indicate that 2024 US presidential election, for implying a change in US energy policy, has relevant policy implications for energy listed firms.
- Stock market effects of CrowdStrike IT outage on largest listed hotel companiesPublication . Albuquerque, Bruno; Cró, Susana; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Martins, AntónioThis study analyses the short-term market effect of CrowdStrike IT outage in the 100 largest worldwide listed hotel companies. Using an event study methodology, the paper analyses how hotel companies are penalized by the market to the biggest IT disruption in history. Our results evidence a statistically significant negative reaction around the event date. This result is explained by the adverse impact caused by IT failures in the hotel’s business operations (reservation, payment, technical systems) and supply chain processes, which result in financial losses. We also observe a highest negative stock market reaction for hotel companies located in Western countries and for hotels with a low cyber risk rating. Finally, this study identifies hotel-specific characteristics that drive value during an IT outage. The research evidence that larger and more profitable hotel companies, with lower leverage and higher cyber risk ratings are more resilient to the adverse effects of IT outages.
- Short-term market impact of 2024 US President elections and Trump-Zelensky meeting in defence industryPublication . Martins, António Miguel; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, Luís; Moutinho, Nuno; Martins, António; Albuquerque, Bruno; Sardinha, LuisThis study examines the short-term market effect of the US and European largest defence firms on the 2024 US presidential election (November 5, 2024) and the Trump-Zelensky meeting (February 28, 2025). By employing an event study methodology, our results show a positive and statistically significant stock price impact for both events. The results for the 2024 US presidential election are consistent with political business cycle theory. National elections in the arms- producing country drive a growth in sales revenues for defence firms, which tend to be higher when the Republican Party candidate wins the US elections. Our results also show the presence of heterogeneous abnormal returns between US and European defence firms around the Trump- Zelensky meeting, with European firms showing high and statistically significant positive returns while US firms show non-significant returns. This result is explained by the failure of security guarantees given by the US to the European countries and the awareness of the need for a rapid increase in military spending for self-defence purposes in Europe. This meeting reinforced the application of the principle of “Europe preference” in the acquisition of weapons. Finally, we conclude that stock market responses are reinforced or mitigated by firm-specific characteristics.