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Publication
Valores em conflito. Estudo sobre ética corporativa e o valor de mercado: o caso da guerra entre a Ucrânia e a Rússia
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Abstract(s)
Períodos de conflito geopolítico colocam desafios complexos às organizações, exigindo
decisões estratégicas que podem acarretar custos económicos e reputacionais. O conflito
Rússia-Ucrânia representa um contexto paradigmático para analisar como as multinacionais
ajustam a sua atuação às pressões institucionais e aos valores em conflito. Esta dissertação visa
contribuir para o debate sobre o posicionamento empresarial, colmatando lacunas na literatura
relacionadas com o efeito retaliativo da Rússia e explorando a influência dos tipos de economias
de mercado. Através da metodologia de estudo de eventos, investigamos os retornos das ações
das multinacionais do Top100 e Global500 com operações na Rússia, focando: (i) na
comunicação da decisão de “Sair” ou “Permanecer” no mercado russo; (ii) no efeito retaliativo
sobre as empresas que permaneceram; e (iii) a influência do tipo de economia de mercado
(Anglo-Saxónica versus Corrente Continental). Os resultados indicam que os mercados
penalizam as empresas, antecipando perdas económicas e evidenciando o efeito das pressões
institucionais. No entanto, a comunicação das decisões empresariais revela-se essencial para
interromper a tendência negativa dos retornos anormais que, dada a coexistência de sinais
opostos (custos económicos versus ganhos reputacionais), resulta num efeito neutro após essa
comunicação. As nossas descobertas mostram que: (i) a opção de “Sair” acarreta menores
perdas, embora ambos os caminhos impliquem custos relevantes de curto prazo; (ii) as
multinacionais da Corrente Continental são mais penalizadas do que as Anglo-Saxónicas; e (iii)
o efeito retaliativo russo não teve o impacto esperado nas multinacionais que permaneceram na
Rússia, mas revela nuances importantes ao considerar o tipo de economia de mercado. Estas
evidências sugerem que os contextos institucionais e os sinais enviados pelas empresas
moldam, de forma diferenciada, as respostas dos investidores. Contudo, dada a complexidade
do tema, recomenda-se alguma cautela nesta análise, sendo esta investigação um ponto de
partida para o futuro aprofundamento académico do tema.
Periods of geopolitical conflict pose complex challenges to organizations, demanding strategic decisions that may entail economic and reputational costs. The Russia-Ukraine conflict represents a paradigmatic context to analyze how multinational companies adjust their actions in response to institutional pressures and conflicting values. This dissertation aims to contribute to the debate on corporate positioning by addressing gaps in the literature related to Russia’s retaliatory effect and by exploring the influence of the types of market economies. Using the event study methodology, we investigated the stock returns of Top100 and Global500 multinational companies operating in Russia, with a special focus on: (i) the communication of the decision to “Exit” or “Remain” in the Russian market; (ii) the retaliatory effect on companies that chose to remain in Russia; and (iii) the influence of the type of market economy (Anglo-Saxon versus Continental). The results indicate that markets penalize those companies, anticipating economic losses and highlighting the effect of institutional pressures. However, corporate decision-making communication plays a key role in halting the negative trend of abnormal returns, which, given the coexistence of opposing signals (economic costs versus reputational gains), results in a neutral effect after the communication. Our findings show that: (i) the decision to “Exit” leads to smaller losses, although both choices involve relevant short term costs; (ii) Continental multinationals are more severely penalized than Anglo-Saxon multinationals; and (iii) the Russian retaliatory effect did not have the expected impact on multinationals that remained in Russia, but reveals important nuances when considering the type of market economy. These findings suggest that institutional contexts and the signals sent by firms shape the differentiated responses of investors. Nevertheless, given the complexity of the topic, caution is recommended, and this research serves as a starting point for future academic exploration of these themes.
Periods of geopolitical conflict pose complex challenges to organizations, demanding strategic decisions that may entail economic and reputational costs. The Russia-Ukraine conflict represents a paradigmatic context to analyze how multinational companies adjust their actions in response to institutional pressures and conflicting values. This dissertation aims to contribute to the debate on corporate positioning by addressing gaps in the literature related to Russia’s retaliatory effect and by exploring the influence of the types of market economies. Using the event study methodology, we investigated the stock returns of Top100 and Global500 multinational companies operating in Russia, with a special focus on: (i) the communication of the decision to “Exit” or “Remain” in the Russian market; (ii) the retaliatory effect on companies that chose to remain in Russia; and (iii) the influence of the type of market economy (Anglo-Saxon versus Continental). The results indicate that markets penalize those companies, anticipating economic losses and highlighting the effect of institutional pressures. However, corporate decision-making communication plays a key role in halting the negative trend of abnormal returns, which, given the coexistence of opposing signals (economic costs versus reputational gains), results in a neutral effect after the communication. Our findings show that: (i) the decision to “Exit” leads to smaller losses, although both choices involve relevant short term costs; (ii) Continental multinationals are more severely penalized than Anglo-Saxon multinationals; and (iii) the Russian retaliatory effect did not have the expected impact on multinationals that remained in Russia, but reveals important nuances when considering the type of market economy. These findings suggest that institutional contexts and the signals sent by firms shape the differentiated responses of investors. Nevertheless, given the complexity of the topic, caution is recommended, and this research serves as a starting point for future academic exploration of these themes.
Description
Keywords
Conflito geopolítico Estudo de evento Retornos anormais de ações Comunicação corporativa Retaliação económica russa Economias de mercado Geopolitical conflict Event study Abnormal stock returns Corporate communication Russian economic retaliation Market economies Gestão . Escola Superior de Tecnologias e Gestão